In particular, the EV-charging value pool is expected to rise from negligible today to $20 billion by 2030. However, the decline in the fuel retail value pool is expected to be offset by gains in nonfuel retail, with the global forecourt value pool increasing from $22 billion in 2019 to $30 billion in 2030 (Exhibit 3). On the other hand, demand is likely to decrease from the rise in working from home, the acceleration in migration to online shopping channels, and the switch from supermarket to convenience retail as populations move away from dense urban centers. The shift from public transportation to private vehicles-seen as the ultimate in personal protective equipment-is likely to increase demand. In the medium term, fuel demand will also be reshaped by behavioral changes among consumers. This decline will be driven by efficiency improvements, regulations to curb emissions, and the rise of electrification and shared mobility, with the relative importance of each factor differing by country. ![]() Developing markets in Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East can expect modest growth in consumer fuel purchasing, while mature economies are likely to see a gradual decline, with the most pronounced impact in Europe, followed by the United States and China. ![]() 5 McKinsey analysis based on fuel demand for road transportation, including passenger vehicles and fleets. The long-term outlook for fuel retail envisages a decline in the global value pool from $87 billion in 2019 to $79 billion in 2030. In some ways, the dramatic shifts experienced in 2020 as everyday life changed significantly have given fuel retailers a preview of the likely impact of the energy transition in years to come. 4 First-half 2020 results, Applegreen, September 18, 2020,. Applegreen, for instance, reported that travel restrictions and the closure of food offerings had a significant impact on its Welcome Break business in the United Kingdom, although sales started to recover as food offers were reopened from June 2020. However, demand for fresh food for motorists on the move-the leading growth category in forecourt convenience-declined sharply and has yet to regain its prepandemic levels in many markets. benefiting from an increased emphasis on hygiene. Meanwhile, a resilient category among traditional forecourt operations was car wash, 3 Rich DiPaolo, “The effect of the pandemic on carwashing,” November 23, 2020,. Some innovative players have captured new demand by partnering with food delivery platforms examples include BP with Deliveroo in the United Kingdom, Shell with Foodpanda in Singapore, and 7-Eleven with DoorDash in the United States. These and other indicators suggest that convenience stores are becoming a destination of choice not only for traditional categories such as tobacco, drinks, and snacks but also for newly introduced and expanded grocery assortments. 2 Second-quarter fiscal year 2021 results, 12- and 24-week periods ended October 11, 2020, Alimentation Couche-Tard, November 24, 2020,. Similarly, customers’ consolidation of shopping trips more than made up for reduced traffic at Circle K forecourt stores. 1 Third-quarter 2020 results, Royal Dutch Shell, October 29, 2020,. Royal Dutch Shell announced that basket sizes in its stores had increased by 15 percent year to date in September 2020, for instance. Keen to avoid crowded supermarkets, many shoppers have sought out convenience stores instead. We have the power, if such breaches are found, to take enforcement action, including the issuing of a compliance notice.Convenience shopping has proved considerably more resilient, however. If the prices you charge for services or products are different to the prices displayed, this constitutes a misleading price indication, and you may be in breach of the Consumer Protection Act. If you fail to display your prices, you may be in breach of the regulations.
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